Ontario’s electricity system is changing faster than at any point in its history. Electrification is accelerating across transportation, buildings, and heavy industry. Data centers are expanding at a record pace. Major nuclear refurbishments and new builds are reshaping the long-term supply curve. At the same time, Ontario is adding thousands of megawatts of battery storage to support reliability, flexibility, and decarbonization.
With all of this happening at once, one question is top of mind for developers, investors, and large energy users:
How much revenue can a battery actually earn in Ontario over the next 25 years?
In this blog, we take a first look at insights from our full technical report on electricity prices and battery storage revenues from 2026 to 2050. If you are evaluating a project, preparing financing material, or considering an LT2 submission, these numbers matter.
Let us break down what the future looks like.
A Market That Rewards Flexibility
Ontario is rapidly becoming a system where flexibility has real monetary value. By 2030, the province is expected to experience both summer and winter peaks for the first time. Demand from EVs, electrified heating, and industrial growth continues to push peaks higher year after year.
This creates more frequent price spreads between off-peak and on-peak hours. Batteries thrive in that environment. They charge when prices are low and discharge when prices spike. This basic mechanism, known as energy arbitrage, is the primary source of revenue for BESS assets.
On top of that, the need for fast response reliability services is set to grow. As more inverter-based resources enter the grid and more synchronous generators retire, operating reserve becomes increasingly important. Batteries are well-suited for this because they can respond instantly to dispatch signals.
Put simply, the structure of the future market is tailor-made for storage.
How We Modeled Future Revenues
To understand how this plays out financially, our analysis looks at a standardized 1 megawatt, 8-hour battery and models its revenue potential across three long-term scenarios:
- Business as Usual
- Base Case
- Net Zero
These scenarios capture different levels of electrification, renewable adoption, and natural gas usage. They also account for how those differences shape electricity prices, both on-peak and off-peak, and how they influence the value of operating reserve.
All prices are modeled using Hourly Ontario Energy Price forecasts converted into Locational Marginal Prices for the Southwest zone. We then calculate the expected price spread each year and apply it to realistic battery operations.
The outcome is a detailed revenue forecast for each year from 2026 through 2050.
So, How Much Can a Battery Earn?
Here is the part most people are waiting for. Over the 25-year analysis window, a 1 megawatt battery earns:
- About 1.37 million CAD in the Business as Usual scenario
- About 2.02 million CAD in the Base Case scenario
- About 2.18 million CAD in the Net Zero scenario
This works out to roughly 55,000 to 87,000 CAD per megawatt per year on average, depending on the scenario.
Most of this revenue comes from energy arbitrage. With 90 percent of the asset allocated to that market, the battery consistently earns from daily price spreads. Operating reserve contributes a smaller but meaningful share, especially in the Net Zero scenario, where system volatility increases.
These results show that storage has strong earning potential even under conservative conditions and even stronger potential as Ontario moves toward deeper decarbonization.
Why These Numbers Matter Now For Battery Storage in Ontario
Battery storage is no longer a speculative technology in Ontario. It is becoming a central pillar in long-term planning, from major procurement programs to regional reliability strategies. LT1 and ELT secured nearly 3,000 megawatts of storage. LT2 is expected to add even more.
For developers and investors, the next wave of projects will need strong economic fundamentals. For large energy users, storage can hedge against rising peaks and volatile prices. For LT2 applicants, demonstrating long-term viability is a key part of building a competitive submission.
Reliable revenue forecasts are essential for all of these decisions. Without them, it isn’t easy to size a project, attract financing, or justify investment.
A Final Thought
Ontario’s energy landscape is undergoing a generational shift. As nuclear refurbishments progress, demand grows, and renewables expand, the need for flexible capacity will only increase. Batteries are positioned to play a major role in this transformation.
The numbers in this blog provide only a small window into the full future outlook. If you are planning a project, preparing an LT2 proposal, or assessing investment opportunities, our full report gives you the detailed modeling, assumptions, and scenario analysis you need to make confident decisions. Contact Us Today to Learn More.
