Edgecom Energy’s 2024 Seasonal Outlook: What to Expect This Summer

As we approach the summer of 2024, Edgecom Energy has released its pTrack® Seasonal Outlook, offering a detailed forecast on electricity demand and peak events. Here are the key highlights and insights from the report.

Season Highlights

1. High Peak Demand Expected

The top 5 peaks this summer are projected to be between 22,500 and 23,200 MW.
High peak chances are expected in June, July, and August, with a lower chance of peaks than previous Septembers.

2. Unpredictable Weather

This summer is expected to be wetter than previous years, with unpredictable storms.
Double curtailment calls are likely due to the difficulty in predicting these storms.

3. Enhanced pTrack® Model

The pTrack® model has been updated to include more weather parameters for improved accuracy. Predictions are now made hourly, compared to the previous 2, 3, and 4-hour curtailment windows.

Monthly Peak Curtailment and Demand Forecast

• May: 0 curtailment hours, with a peak demand forecast of 20,700 MW.
• June: 10 curtailment hours, with a peak demand forecast of 22,500 MW.
• July: 10 curtailment hours, with a peak demand forecast of 23,200 MW.
• August: 5 curtailment hours, with a peak demand forecast of 22,800 MW.
• September: 5 curtailment hours, with a peak demand forecast of 21,500 MW.

Performance Overview and Driving Factors

Factors Driving Electricity Demand Up

• Weather Sensitivity: With the persistence of work-from-home trends, residential and commercial spaces are being cooled during the summer, increasing energy demand.
• Economic Growth: The growing economy, large industrial loads, and increased electrification from fuel switching are projected to drive a 1.1% increase in energy demand in 2024, accelerating into 2025.

Sector-Specific Trends

• Residential Sector: Supported by housing policies, immigration, and the adoption of new technologies like heat pumps and EVs, residential electricity demand is expected to grow steadily.
• Commercial Sector: Influenced by the digital economy and hybrid work models, commercial sector demand will see slow, steady growth, reaching 62 TWh by 2050.
• Industrial Sector: Significant growth due to developments in the EV supply chain, hydrogen production, and mineral extraction.
• Agricultural Sector: Increased demand primarily due to greenhouse expansion and artificial lighting.
• Transportation Sector: Surge in demand driven by EV adoption and rail electrification.

Factors Reducing Electricity Demand

• Residential Demand Response: Expected to reduce summer peak demand by 125 MW or less.
• Improved ICI Curtailment: Better peak prediction and aggressive curtailment by Class A participants, along with battery and HVAC system optimization, are projected to save about 1%, with a demand reduction of 1,750 MW.

For more information or to get in touch, you can contact Edgecom Energy at:

Phone: 416-640-2401
Email: info@edgecom.ai
Address: 5775 Yonge Street, Suite 1902, Toronto
Stay prepared and informed with Edgecom Energy’s insights to navigate the summer season effectively.